The main monthly numbers for Pakistan's economy, each read as positive, neutral or negative for stocks, and how those signals lined up with KSE-100 returns. Updated 6 Nov 2026.
This page collects the monthly numbers that matter most for Pakistani stocks and reads each one as positive, neutral or negative for the market. The table below shows the latest figure we hold for each indicator. Release dates differ, so some figures are a month or two older than others.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, year on year) | 9.6% | October 2026 | PBS |
| SBP policy rate | 12% | October 2026 | SBP |
| Real interest rate (policy rate minus inflation) | +2.4 pp | October 2026 | calculated |
| SBP foreign exchange reserves | .56 billion (country total .86 billion) | 30 Oct 2026 | SBP |
| Current account balance | -6 million | September 2026 | SBP |
| Trade balance (goods) | -Rs 1,089 billion | October 2026 | PBS |
| FBR tax collection | Rs 974 billion (target Rs 1,132 billion) | October 2026 | FBR |
| Cement despatches | 4.81 million tons (+0.4% vs a year earlier) | October 2026 | APCMA |
| Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), year on year | +0.67% | August 2026 | PBS |
| US dollar to rupee | Rs 276.36 | November 2026 | market |
| 10-year government bond yield | 12.85% | 7 Oct 2026 | market |
| Real effective exchange rate (REER) | 108.9 (10-year average 102.4) | September 2026 | SBP |
| GDP growth | 2% | FY to June 2026 | PBS |
The State Bank of Pakistan's policy rate stands at 12%, after it moved from 11.5% to 12% in October 2026. With inflation at 9.6%, the real rate is +2.4 percentage points. A positive real rate means savers earn more than inflation; it usually keeps the rupee steadier but makes bank deposits and bonds stronger competition for shares. Rate cuts have historically been good for the KSE-100, which is why the KSE allocation model is built on the rate cycle.
The current account was in deficit by 6 million in September 2026, compared with a deficit of million the month before. The current account, foreign exchange reserves and the trade balance decide how much pressure there is on the rupee, and a weaker rupee feeds into inflation and interest rates. Exporters and companies with dollar income tend to benefit from a weaker rupee, while importers and companies with dollar debt suffer.
Each indicator is compared with its own recent trend and turned into a positive, neutral or negative reading for stocks. The dashboard above adds them up month by month and shows how those readings lined up with KSE-100 returns over the following months, using about five years of history. No single number moves the market on its own, but when most indicators point the same way the signal has been more reliable. For the forward-looking view, see leading indicators and sector leaders, KSE allocation model, KSE-100 today.
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) and market prices.
Data and analysis for education and research. Not investment advice. Prices and figures can be revised by their sources.
Consumer price inflation was 9.6% year on year in October 2026, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
The State Bank of Pakistan policy rate is 12%. It last changed in October 2026, from 11.5% to 12%.
SBP held .56 billion of reserves as of 30 Oct 2026.
The current account was in deficit by 6 million in September 2026.
Lower inflation and falling interest rates have usually supported Pakistani stocks, while a weak external account and pressure on the rupee have hurt them. The signals on this page show how the main indicators lined up with KSE-100 returns in the past.
Each indicator is updated when its source releases a new figure, usually monthly. Reserves are weekly and market prices are daily.